Tuesday, February 17, 2026

March 2026 Stock Watch List

As I'm writing this blog post, it's currently Friday, February 13th. Despite the superstitions surrounding Friday the 13th, it seems lucky to me. The temperature here in Central Wisconsin is set to reach a high of 52 degrees Fahrenheit with sunshine as well. Needless to say, I will be getting outside today!

Now that I have likely completed all of my transactions for February 2026, I will be looking ahead to stocks on my watch list for the next month. Without further ado, let's jump into it!

Stock #1: Automatic Data Processing (ADP)

The first stock on my watch list for the month ahead is Automatic Data Processing (also my first pick in this series' previous blog post). Curious readers can peruse my investment thesis in this Seeking Alpha article from last month.

My investment thesis was once again validated a few weeks ago when ADP shared its fiscal second quarter earnings report. The company's revenue and adjusted diluted EPS grew at healthy clips again, surpassing the analyst consensus estimates by $21 million and $0.05, respectively. Overall, ADP remains positioned to deliver 8% to 10% annual adjusted diluted EPS growth over the medium term. The company also continues to sport an AA- S&P credit rating with a stable outlook. Its 3.2% dividend yield is comfortably backed up by adjusted diluted EPS and FCF generation. At the current $213 share price (as of February 13th, 2026), shares are priced at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of just 18.3. That's well below my fair value estimate of $313 (a fair value multiple of 27, which would still be less than the FAST Graphs 10-year average P/E ratio of 28.6).

Stock #2: Amazon.com (AMZN)

The next stock on my watch list for March 2026 is Amazon.com. Interested readers can find my investment thesis in this Seeking Alpha article from last November. This would be my first time adding to AMZN stock since last October.

Basically, I was encouraged by AMZN's AWS growth of 24% in Q4 2025. This was the strongest growth rate for the platform since 2022. Along with the booming ads business, this served as the rationale for AMZN to release a $200 billion forecast for 2026 capex. In the days following the earnings report, the market hasn't taken kindly to this capex bonanza.

However, I view this as a buying opportunity. The long-term growth thesis is intact, with the cloud computing, e-commerce retail, and digital advertising verticals set for outsized growth in the years ahead. AMZN's strength in each put it in a position where I believe that robust OCF per share growth can continue. Its balance sheet is rock-solid as well, with an AA S&P credit rating and a stable outlook.

Simultaneously, the stock is trading at a forward 12-month P/OCF ratio of just 11.5 from the current $199 share price. This is well below my fair value of $345 a share (a P/OCF ratio of 20, which would be moderately below the FAST Graphs 10-year average P/OCF ratio of 23.5).

Stock #3: Microsoft (MSFT)

The third stock on my watch list for next month is Microsoft. Like ADP, I'm also running MSFT back again for this series.

Macro concerns over accelerating hyperscaler capex have led this to sell off even further, currently sitting around $400 a share. That's equivalent to a forward 12-month P/E ratio of just above 22. This is substantially less than the FAST Graphs 10-year average P/E ratio of 29 and my fair value per share estimate of $525 (also a fair value multiple of 29).

Still, MSFT's growth outlook is exceptional, with the enterprise positioned for solidly double-digit percentage diluted EPS growth over the next few years. Cloud computing and enterprise software remain fast-growing markets to power this growth for the company. MSFT's 0.9% dividend yield is modest, but supported by a payout ratio in the low-20% range for FY 2026. That's why I remain confident the company will eventually become a Dividend Aristocrat. MSFT's also possesses the only AAA S&P credit rating among its Big Tech peers.

Bonus Stock #1: Intuit (INTU)

The next stock on my watch list for March 2026 is Intuit. Staying on the theme of high-quality software picks, Intuit is a new addition to my watch list for this month. Just like MSFT, INTU has seen a meaningful valuation reset to begin the calendar year.

At the current $399 share price, the stock trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio just above 16. That's less than half of the FAST Graphs 10-year average P/E ratio of 37.6 and far under the 20-year average P/E ratio of 29.8 as well. Moving forward, I think that its double-digit earnings growth prospects and high free cash flow margins can support a fair value P/E ratio of 28 ($696 fair value per share estimate).

QuickBooks and TurboTax are basically the operating systems for both small businesses and consumers. To this point, the data from the early 2026 tax season has been positive. I'm confident that combined with INTU's AI-assisted filings, this will driver higher retention and average revenue per user to sustain its double-digit percentage non-GAAP diluted EPS growth. The company's balance sheet is also respectable, with an A S&P credit rating and a stable outlook.

Bonus Stock #2: Western Midstream Partners (WES)

Shifting gears from growth to income, my fifth and final pick for next month is Western Midstream Partners. Readers can find the gist of my investment thesis in my December Seeking Alpha article co-produced with Treading Softly.

Recently, WES renegotiated its contract with its largest customer and its largest unitholder, Occidental Petroleum. The shift to a simplified fee structure and improved capital structure has de-risked its cash flow profile. Thanks to its net leverage ratio of 3x, WES enjoys a BBB- S&P credit rating with a stable outlook.

Valuation wise, units could still have some upside left after a hot start to 2026 (up 10% YTD). From the current $43 unit price, the partnership is still trading at a forward 12-month P/OCF ratio of only 7.2. This is moderately below the FAST Graphs 11-year average P/OCF ratio of 8.5 (and our corresponding fair value per unit of $51). On top of this undervaluation, WES offers a well-covered 8.4% distribution yield as I await a further valuation multiple re-rating.

Concluding Thoughts:

There we have it. Five fantastic companies that I'm likely to buy soon. My tentative weighting will be as follows: 25% to WES, 20% to AMZN, 20% to INTU, 20% to MSFT, and 15% to ADP. That should keep me in the high-2% to low-3% net yield range that I target, while offering attractive overall value and growth potential. 

Discussion:

Are any of ADP, AMZN, INTU, MSFT, or WES on your watch list for next month?

If not, what stocks are you watching for March 2026?

Thank you for reading and I welcome your comments below!

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