September 2025 Stock Watch List

As I'm writing this blog post, it's Saturday, August 2nd. The temperature here in Central Wisconsin is set to reach a high of 80 degrees Fahrenheit later today. Along with a sunny forecast, this is arguably perfect weather. Thus, I definitely plan on spending time outside today!

Now that I have completed the purchases that I highlighted in my August 2025 Stock Watch List blog post, I likely won't be committing any further fresh capital for the month. I may shuffle the portfolio around a bit with a minor capital reallocation. Anyway, with that being said, I'm going to be looking ahead to the stocks on my watch list for September 2025.

Stock #1: Amazon (AMZN)

Once again, Amazon is on my watch list for next month. I've added to my position seven times so far this year. Curious readers can find my investment thesis in my July 2025 Stock Watch List blog post.

The gist of my bullishness continues to rest on AMZN's strong positions in thriving industries like cloud computing, e-commerce, and digital advertising. The company beat analysts' expectations in Q2. Given capacity restraints and the sheer size of its cloud computing business, I thought the AWS results were solid. The advertising business posted solid results as well.

The midpoint of AMZN's Q3 operating income guidance came in below the consensus from analysts. However, the company does have a tendency to be conservative with guidance ($19.2 billion in Q2 was $1.7 billion above the top end of its guidance). That's why I'm not too worried about the lower-than-expected guidance.

AMZN's balance sheet remains an AA-rated fortress. At the current $215 share price (as of August 2nd, 2025),  the stock is also priced at a forward 12-month P/OCF ratio of 14.5. According to FAST Graphs, that's below the 10-year average P/OCF ratio of 23.8. Given the 19% annual OCF/share growth consensus through 2030, I believe a P/OCF ratio of 21 (a $310 fair value per share estimate) is reasonable. 

Overall, a 31% discount to my fair value estimate for one of the best businesses on the planet is what gives me such conviction to keep buying more AMZN.

Stock #2: ONEOK (OKE)

Next up on my watch list for September 2025 is ONEOK. Interested readers can peruse my investment thesis in my June Seeking Alpha article.

The takeaway is that OKE has a handful of projects that have been finished recently to drive near-term growth (the West Texas NGL Pipeline and Elk Creek NGL Pipeline expansions). Other longer term projects remain in progress and OKE also expects to fully realize hundreds of millions of dollars of annual synergies over the next few years from recent acquisitions.

OKE's balance sheet is investment-grade, too (BBB on a stable outlook from S&P). Shares are trading at a forward 12-month P/OCF ratio of 7.5 at the current $79 share price. For more context, that's below the 10-year average P/OCF ratio of 9.7 and my fair value estimate of 8.7 ($92 fair value per share estimate).

Stock #3: Union Pacific (UNP)

The third and final focus of my watch list for next month is Union Pacific. Readers can check out my investment thesis in my July 2025 Stock Watch List blog post linked above. Otherwise, my full analysis can be found in my June Seeking Alpha article.

Basically, railroads are some of my favorite long-term investments. That's because of the fact that they'll always be needed. As the economy grows and UNP becomes more efficient, this should drive solid diluted EPS growth over time. The company's potential merger with Norfolk Southern to form the country's first transcontinental railroad could come with additional growth opportunities and the potential for sizable synergies, too.

UNP's A-rated balance sheet is another plus. What's more, the stock is trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 17.6 from the current $219 share price. This is below the 10-year average P/E ratio of 21.2, which is also my fair value P/E ratio ($264 fair value per share estimate).

Concluding Thoughts:

There we have it. In my view, AMZN, OKE, and UNP are three phenomenal businesses. As was the case in my July stock watch list, I'm leaning toward an approximately 40% weighting to AMZN. The remaining 60% of funds will be allocated pretty evenly between OKE and UNP.

Discussion:

Are any of AMZN, OKE, or UNP on your radar for September 2025?

If not, what stocks are you watching for next month?

I appreciate your readership and welcome your comments below!